Two factors are worth underlining. One, in order to get a large number of seats in the state, the BJP would have to significantly increase its vote share from 2014 levels. And two, the BJP’s growth in West Bengal until now has been at the cost of the opposition, namely the Communist Party of India (Marxist)-led Left Front and the Congress.
Because the panchayat elections witnessed allegations of large-scale intimidation and rigging by the AITC, there was an impression that the opposition’s tally could have been better had the polls been fair. Will 2019 spring a surprise performance by the BJP in West Bengal?source
The median vote share of the Left and the BJP put together in all 42 parliamentary constituencies in the state was almost the same in 2009 (47%) and 2014 (47.8%). However, the distribution shifted discernibly in favour of the BJP in the 2014 elections.
Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) is expecting major gains from West Bengal in 2019. That the BJP has emerged the main opposition party against the ruling All India Trimanool Congress (AITC) is not in doubt. The BJP finished a clear, albeit distant, second in the 2018 panchayat elections n the state. Until 2016, it was the Communist Party of India (Marxist)-led Left Front that was second in the state in terms of vote share.